In ODI cricket in 2025, the contest belongs to the team that can maximise batting and bowling efficiency in overs 11 to 40
Kartikeya Date20-Feb-2025One-day international cricket is a contest of efficiency. Normal expectations in ODI cricket have shifted as more matches have been played.In the 1970s and 80s, ODI openers were staid and their task was understood to be to see off the new ball so that the middle order could build a score against the change bowlers and the older ball. In the 1990s, Saeed Anwar, Mark Greatbatch, Sachin Tendulkar, Sanath Jayasuriya and then Adam Gilchrist demonstrated that the 1980s orthodoxy was inefficient – that the new ball could be plundered for quick runs too.There was an interesting brief interlude in the early 1990s when it was thought ideal to send the team’s best batter to open the ODI innings under the theory that the best batter should face as many deliveries as possible. Inzamam-ul-Haq, Brian Lara and Tendulkar all opened the batting for their teams in ODI cricket at this time. Tendulkar went on to build the greatest opener’s record in ODI cricket to date, but Lara and Inzamam soon moved back down the order.Related
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The best teams of their day in ODI cricket are the ones that are most efficient. Efficiency here means that they extract runs more efficiently than the opposition when they bat, and they extract wickets more efficiently when they bowl.While exploiting the new ball, and power-hitting in the slog overs are well understood, the more significant changes have come in the middle overs of ODI innings. These changes have been shaped to a large extent by the ICC’s experiments with the powerplay rule.The most recent change to the powerplay rules for ODI innings came after the 2015 World Cup, when the authorities decided to relax the restriction of four or fewer fielders outside the 30-yard circle and permit a fifth fielder there after the 40th over. The upshot of these changes can be seen in the chart below.Kartikeya DateIn the early 2000s, a six was hit once every 150 balls in the middle 30 overs of an ODI innings (overs 11-40). In the early 2020s, a six has been hit once every 60 balls during this period – two and a half times more often. Strikingly, the frequency of fours has not changed significantly. It was a four every 16.4 balls in the early 2000s. It has changed to a four every 15.3 balls in the early 2020s.Similarly, the scoring rate from deliveries where boundaries are not scored has remained more or less the same. It was 49.9 runs per 100 balls in the early 2000s and is 51.1 runs per 100 balls in the early 2020s.The change in scoring patterns in the middle overs has been accompanied by more frequent dismissals. In the early 2000s a wicket fell every 49.6 balls in the middle 30 overs of an ODI. In the early 2020s, this figure fell to a wicket every 42.8 balls. The extra fielder in the ring has brought quicker runs and more frequent dismissals in the middle overs.All this means that much of the action in ODI cricket accelerated. The average successful chase in the early 2000s was 207 runs, while in the early 2020s, it is 232. But even so, the average chase in the early 2020s was completed in 233 balls against the 240 required in the early 2000s. One of the less frequently considered aspects of ODI cricket is that the thrilling chase is the exception and not the norm. Slogging at the death, especially when chasing, is something most teams seek to avoid.The table below looks at matches since the beginning of 2023 that involve teams that have qualified for the current Champions Trophy. This table provides a fine overview of the relative strengths of the participating teams. Readers should keep in mind that the magnitude of the effect shown in the lower table is exaggerated, since matches rarely last the full 100 overs. Note that the figures are per 180 balls for the middle 30 overs, and per 120 balls for the first ten and last ten overs.!function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
India have been an ODI powerhouse in recent years, especially in Asia where their record reads 18-5 in 24 ODIs against teams they could face in the Champions Trophy (it is 20-6 in all locations against these teams). For the most part, this record has been built on their mastery of the middle overs with bat and ball. They score 17.2 runs more than they concede, and take 2.2 wickets more than they concede per 180 balls.Most tellingly, this is an advantage they retain even when Jasprit Bumrah is excluded from their list of bowlers. Kuldeep Yadav alone has averaged 1.36 wickets per innings in the middle 30 overs. Bumrah’s absence, and Mohammed Shami’s uncertain return following a long injury layoff, weaken India’s fast bowling significantly. This reduces their ability to control the game in an otherwise strong and versatile squad. Still, India can call on Axar Patel, Ravindra Jadeja and Hardik Pandya to add batting and bowling depth to their line-up.The contrast between India and England is telling. England score quicker than India in the middle 30 overs (6.1 runs per over to India’s 5.7), but they also concede more runs than India (5.7 runs per over to India’s 5.2) in the middle overs white taking one wicket fewer on average. England’s difficulty in ODI cricket in recent years has been that they have not been able to replicate the wicket-taking capability of Jofra Archer since his injury. To really make the extra runs produced by the deeper line-up count, a team needs one or two bowlers who can be called on to reliably dismiss batters. Despite Adil Rashid’s excellent form, England have struggled in this area in recent years. If the conditions in Pakistan and the UAE are not new-ball friendly for the bowlers, England’s difficulty in this area will be magnified.!function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
Australia and South Africa have similar problems on the bowling front. Australia’s first-choice pace attack has withdrawn due to various reasons, and their squad currently does not have a fingerspinner. South Africa rely heavily on Kagiso Rabada with the ball. Their pace contingent has been significantly weakened by the withdrawal of Anrich Nortje and the injury problems of Gerald Coetzee. Unlike Australia, who have not selected Nathan Lyon or Todd Murphy, South Africa have picked Keshav Maharaj to partner Tabraiz Shamsi’s left-arm wristspin.The hosts and defending champions Pakistan have not had the power-hitting that is commonly found in the India, South Africa, Australia and England squads. These four teams have averaged one six every 33-37 balls in ODI cricket since the start of 2023. The figure for Pakistan in this period is one six every 48 balls. Like Australia, Pakistan have also not named a front-line fingerspinner in their Champions Trophy squad. Fakhar Zaman’s return improves their side. Nevertheless, in the middle overs Pakistan’s problem since the start of 2023 has been below-average power with the bat, and average wicket-taking ability with the ball. If the wickets are flat, these problems could be magnified.New Zealand arrive with a typically well constructed squad. Mitchell Santner, Michael Bracewell, Rachin Ravindra and Glenn Phillips give them significant depth with bat and ball, though none of these bowlers has the wicket-taking ability of Kuldeep or Adam Zampa. New Zealand will miss the speed and hostility of Lockie Ferguson, but otherwise their squad is well balanced and experienced.Afghanistan and Bangladesh do not have the power of the top teams in their batting line-ups. Even so, Afghanistan’s spinners and Bangladesh’s all-round depth (even without Shakib Al Hasan) will keep them competitive. With fixtures scheduled in the day-night format, it is not difficult to imagine either Bangladesh or Afghanistan winning three important tosses, getting wins and either advancing or at least spoiling the prospects of the top contenders.Under the current format, the holding spinner or seamer who could bowl with five fielders on the boundary and bowl eight overs for 30 in the middle of the innings no longer has a role in the game. Teams require bowlers who can take wickets in the middle overs, and batters who have the range of strokes to target the extra undefended boundary against both pace and spin. Even without Bumrah, given their recent form, and the fact that the conditions are likely to bring their spinners into the game, it is difficult to look beyond India if one is looking for a favourite.