The start of March was delayed a day thanks to the leap year, but it’s now time for the madness to commence. The first round of the men’s NCAA Tournament tips off three weeks from yesterday and the defending national champion UConn Huskies are the team to beat. Though coach Dan Hurley’s team is No. 3 in the AP poll and KenPom and No. 4 in NET rankings, the Huskies (+500) are the betting favorites to cut down the nets again this April in Arizona.
No men’s team has won back-to-back titles since the Florida Gators in 2006-07.
The Purdue Boilermakers (+700) and Houston Cougars (+700) are UConn’s closest competition at the top of the polls and the betting market. Those three teams along, with the Arizona Wildcats (+1200), are all projected No. 1 seeds in Kevin Sweeney’s latest bracket watch, which bodes well for them considering the previous five champions were No. 1 seeds before the No. 4 Huskies won it all in 2023.
Plenty can change between now and Selection Sunday, but let’s take a quick snapshot of the latest betting odds and analyze some of the top contenders.
2024 Men’s College Basketball National Championship Odds
Connecticut Huskies +500
Purdue Boilermakers +700
Houston Cougars +700
Arizona Wildcats +1200
Tennessee Volunteers +1200
North Carolina Tar Heels +1600
Auburn Tigers +1800
Alabama Crimson Tide +2000
Kansas Jayhawks +2200
Marquette Golden Eagles +2200
Duke Blue Devils +2500
Iowa State Cyclones +2500
Kentucky Wildcats +2500
Illinois Fighting Illini +2800
Baylor Bears +3300
Creighton Blue Jays +3300
BYU Cougars +4000
Michigan State Spartans +4000
Wisconsin Badgers +4000
San Diego State Aztecs +5000
Saint Mary's Gaels +5000
TCU Horned Frogs +5000
Colorado Buffaloes +6600
Florida Gators +6600
Texas A&M Aggies +6600
UConn Huskies (+500)
The Huskies (25–3, 15–2 Big East) followed up an 81–53 win over the then-No. 4 Marquette Golden Eagles with an 85–66 upset loss at then-No. 15 Creighton last week and fell from their perch atop the AP poll to No. 3. Led by Tristen Newton, UConn ranks No. 4 in adjusted offense and is 9–3 against Quad 1 opponents. A March 6 trip to take on No. 5 Marquette is the toughest regular-season game left on the schedule before the Big East Tournament, which the Huskies haven’t won since 2011.
Purdue Boilermakers (+700)
The No. 2 Boilermakers (25–3, 14–3 Big Ten) are on their way toward earning another top seed in the Big Dance after their last appearance was marred by an upset at the hands of No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson. Reigning AP Player of the Year Zach Edey is in the midst of another All-American campaign and he recently announced this would be his final collegiate season. That puts pressure on Purdue to make a run at its first title in program history. The Boilermakers boast the No. 2 adjusted offense in the country and are also 9–3 in Quad 1 games. A March 5 road game against the No. 13 Illinois Illini is their only remaining top-25 matchup before the Big Ten tournament, where they’ll look to defend their title.
Houston Cougars (+700)
A shakeup at the top of the AP poll has the Cougars (25–3, 12–3 Big 12) ranked No. 1 for the first time this season. That mirrors Houston’s position as the top team in KenPom and NET rankings with the No. 1 adjusted defense in the country. The duo of guards L.J. Cryer and Jamal Shead have the Cougars in position to win their first Big 12 title in their second year in the league. But that could come down to the March 9 season finale against the No. 7 Kansas Jayhawks, who beat Houston 78–65 at the beginning of February.
Arizona Wildcats (+1200)
The ratings systems look upon the No. 6 Wildcats (22–6, 13–4 Pac-12) a bit more favorably than the AP voters. Led by North Carolina transfer Caleb Love, Arizona is fourth in KenPom and No. 3 in NET rankings. The Wildcats have dropped some games they shouldn’t have in conference play (at Stanford and Oregon State as double-digit favorites), but they played a tough non-conference schedule early in the season and picked up a road win against the Duke Blue Devils and a double-digit victory over the Alabama Crimson Tide on a neutral floor. Barring any more upsets, Arizona will win the Pac-12 regular season crown and push for its third straight tournament championship.
Tennessee Volunteers (+1200)
The No. 4 Volunteers (22–6, 12–3 SEC) won their first of what will be four straight games against top-20 teams Wednesday against No. 11 Auburn. Dalton Knecht’s 39-point outburst led Tennessee in a 92–84 victory. The Vols have the No. 3 adjusted defense in the country and a bonafide Wooden Award candidate in Knecht but are just 5–5 in Quadrant 1 games. Three Q1 opportunities remain against No. 14 Alabama, No. 18 South Carolina and No. 16 Kentucky — Tennessee already beat the Tide and the Wildcats earlier in the year. The Vols haven’t finished in sole possession of first place in the SEC since 2008, though they shared the title with Auburn in 2018 and won the conference tournament in 2022.